Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48db…5ff5 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$166 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$25
14 days+$84
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$321
sports 13% +$86
finance 2% +$11
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.5% +2.7% 73% 73% -1.5%
≤30d 22 -4.8% -13.9% 55% 55% -4.8%
≤90d 69 -25.8% -32.9% 39% 32% -14.7%
all 69 -25.8% -32.9% 39% 32% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 32% -14.7%
10% -39.3% 22% -22.8%
15% -45.2% 19% -30.3%
20% -50.5% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions18
Markets (closed)69 / 93
History coverage90d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 27¢ $45 $82 +$37 (+82%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $53 $72 +$20 (+37%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $36 $57 +$20 (+56%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $22 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 12¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-81%)
Will Michael Morales be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+388%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Petr Yan fight Umar Nurmagomedov next? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16 +$3 +17%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $49 +$55 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $43 +$28 +65%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 Jun 26 $5 +$4 +90%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +14%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $37 +$7 +19%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 22 $83 −$80 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$11 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$20 +77%
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026 Jun 16 $11 +$18 +164%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$22 +110%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -99%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 28 $196 +$86 +44%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $23 −$22 -99%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $446 +$33 +7%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $105 +$3 +3%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $316 −$11 -3%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $146 −$143 -98%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $21 −$11 -51%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $135 −$105 -78%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $266 +$53 +20%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -93%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $54 −$15 -28%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 29 $92 −$11 -12%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $85 −$8 -10%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $107 +$13 +12%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 25 $298 +$16 +5%
Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 25 $0 $0 -75%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 25 $18 −$18 -100%
OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 25 $18 −$18 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $35 −$1 -2%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $104 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $15 5h
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 13h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY 11¢ $2 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $4 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY 3¢ $2 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $16 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $34 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $33 27h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $41 28h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 BUY 52¢ $5 30h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 39h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $9 39h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $17 39h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 2d
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $1 5d
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $26 5d
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $36 5d
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $21 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $12 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound BUY Yes 14¢ $7 7d
Will Alexander Volkanovski be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.55 · official $372.48 · 394 history records