Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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48 0x48dd…271d crypto 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,420 (-3%) realized −$2,388 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%309W / 475L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 153d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,711
sports 3% −$233
world 2% −$758
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -57.5% -61.5% 20% 16% -52.1%
≤30d 247 -19.5% -27.2% 35% 29% -24.2%
≤90d 479 -18.8% -26.5% 38% 33% -18.5%
all 784 -17.8% -25.7% 39% 31% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 31% -14.2%
10% -32.8% 25% -22.4%
15% -39.3% 18% -29.9%
20% -45.2% 14% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$35 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$2,388
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses309 / 475
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)784 / 790
History coverage153d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$45 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$36 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$8 -37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 +$12 +220%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$11 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $91 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $25 −$14 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $403 +$126 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $61 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $111 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $7 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $55 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 2h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.84 · official $18.84 (match) · 3268 history records