Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48dd…028e politics 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 689d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$21
other 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 93 -5.8% -14.8% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

689d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage689d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) win the most seats in the 2026 Feb 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $0 $0 +0%
Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Diogo Jota be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $5 $0 -5%
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Michigan win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $55 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $55 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $55 32d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 33d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 33d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 41d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $55 47d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $55 48d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $56 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $56 68d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 75d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $56 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $56 83d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 88d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 88d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 92d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 93d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 94d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 94d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $56 97d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $56 97d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records