Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48de…0c51 crypto 1397 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,024 (+14%) realized +$895 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%527W / 1122L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$806
7 days−$438
14 days−$273
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$186
politics 27% +$497
other 23% +$591
sports 11% −$21
world 5% +$44
tech 4% +$66
economics 2% +$89
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -69.6% -72.5% 11% 10% -31.8%
≤30d 620 -36.5% -42.6% 26% 24% -4.8%
≤90d 1649 -20.8% -28.3% 32% 28% -7.6%
all 1649 -20.8% -28.3% 32% 28% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 28% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 25% -16.4%
15% -41.5% 22% -24.5%
20% -47.2% 19% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$895
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses527 / 1122
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1649 / 1397
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1649 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast say "Fortnite" during his next gaming YouTube video? No 54¢ 90¢ $60 $101 +$41 (+68%)
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? No 60¢ 75¢ $68 $84 +$17 (+25%)
Will MrBeast say "Wife" during his next gaming YouTube video? No 60¢ 90¢ $39 $59 +$20 (+51%)
Will "Walkable" be in the headlines this week? No 59¢ 80¢ $38 $52 +$14 (+35%)
Will "Federal Reserve" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 59¢ 64¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Will "Silly" be in the headlines this week? No 60¢ 77¢ $28 $36 +$8 (+28%)
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week? No 62¢ 58¢ $36 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? No 60¢ 56¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon post "Never" on X this week? No 62¢ 58¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week? No 60¢ 58¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon post "China" on X this week? No 62¢ 58¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon post "Video game" or "Videogame" on X this week? No 60¢ 58¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will "Apple" be in the headlines this week? No 56¢ 54¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will "Samsung" be in the headlines this week? No 54¢ 55¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? No 63¢ 76¢ $18 $21 +$4 (+21%)
Will "Nvidia" be in the headlines this week? No 52¢ 57¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will "Korea" or "Korean" be in the headlines this week? No 42¢ 57¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+36%)
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next PMQ? Yes 10¢ 53¢ $3 $14 +$12 (+430%)
Will "Inflation" be in the headlines this week? No 35¢ 56¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+61%)
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next PMQ? Yes 10¢ 52¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+425%)
Will Trump say "Big League" or "Bigly" in June? No 35¢ 40¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will "Reform" be in the headlines this week? No 40¢ 59¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ? No 29¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+63%)
Will Starmer say "Ban" during the next PMQ? No 22¢ 13¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-42%)
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? No 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 467 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Howard Bison Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during National Agriculture Day events? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -68%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. DePaul Blue Demons Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Belmont Bruins vs. Illinois State Redbirds Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Jun 20 $1 +$3 +197%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bill Ackman say "Shareholder" 3+ times during the X Space event o Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$3 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Ball State Cardinals Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Alien" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Butler Bulldogs Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -88%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Queens (NC) Royals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Robotic" or "Robotics" during the Fighting Ol Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 20 $10 −$11 -109%
Sabres vs. Devils Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -124%
Hornets vs. Nets Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bradley Braves vs. Belmont Bruins Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Eastern Washington Eagles Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY No 17¢ $2 2m
Will Elon post "China" on X this week? BUY No 62¢ $35 7m
Will Elon post "Never" on X this week? BUY No 62¢ $36 1h
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2h
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2h
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week? BUY No 62¢ $36 2h
Will Elon post "Knicks" on X this week? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Elon post "Football" on X this week? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Elon post "Knicks" on X this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Elon post "Football" on X this week? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will "Federal Reserve" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY No 59¢ $1 8h
Will "Federal Reserve" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 40¢ $2 8h
Will "Federal Reserve" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY No 59¢ $45 8h
Will Elon post "Video game" or "Videogame" on X this week? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 18h
Will Elon post "Video game" or "Videogame" on X this week? BUY No 60¢ $34 18h
Will Starmer say "Ban" during the next PMQ? BUY No 29¢ $3 18h
Will "Biology" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23h
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 60¢ $2 24h
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 60¢ $34 24h
Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week? BUY No 60¢ $34 24h
Will MrBeast say "Darius" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 25h
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 25h
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 28h
Will "Korea" or "Korean" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 65¢ $4 32h
Will "Nvidia" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 63¢ $14 32h
Will "Football" or "Soccer" be in the headlines this week? BUY No 20¢ $1 32h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI BUY No 30¢ $8 41h
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.82 · official $757.83 · 3500 history records