Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48df…e4c9 sports 1406 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$228 (+1%) realized +$235 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%736W / 933L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,056
7 days−$4,867
14 days−$1,062
30 days−$1,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$3,890
sports 44% −$174
world 0% +$10
politics 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$3
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -97.0% -97.3% 1% 1% -65.4%
≤30d 336 -74.2% -76.7% 7% 5% -20.2%
≤90d 1215 -21.5% -29.0% 39% 32% -15.2%
all 1669 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 36% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 33% -21.6%
15% -36.3% 30% -29.1%
20% -42.5% 28% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$235
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses736 / 933
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1669 / 1406
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 56¢ 56¢ $102 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $80 $63 −$17 (-21%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $39 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kraken Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
New Delhi: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Rio Noguchi Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passaro Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
CEHL: Vitkovice vs. Dynamo Pardubice Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-22? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-02-28? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2025-12-06? Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-01? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-13? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 139.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series Australia vs. India, Women: Australia vs India Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Altmaier vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Qatar Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Roberto Carballes Bae Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $35 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 57¢ $68 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 42¢ $19 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 18¢ $24 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 44¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 51¢ $30 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND SELL 56¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 51¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $13 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $38 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $16 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 50¢ $24 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 54¢ $30 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,751 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,604 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 24¢ $12 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 43¢ $20 6d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 12¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.61 · official $357.61 (match) · 3500 history records