Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48e0…826d sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,600 (-7%) realized −$14,499 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%103W / 123L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$3,178est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,784
7 days+$5,614
14 days+$7,266
30 days−$7,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$16,573
other 8% −$1,015
world 0% −$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 49% +9.1%
≤30d 159 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 45% -12.7%
≤90d 226 -7.1% -15.9% 46% 45% -15.9%
all 226 -7.1% -15.9% 46% 45% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 45% -15.9%
10% -24.0% 44% -23.9%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 40% -31.3%
20% -38.1% 35% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,040) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$907 vs −$906 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,833
Realized−$14,499
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses103 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$3,178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage43d
Avg bet$979
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $1,933 $1,833 −$101 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2,030 −$1,806 -89%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $305 +$125 +41%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $3,928 +$2,729 +70%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $571 +$386 +68%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $256 −$252 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $499 −$499 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,063 +$687 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $196 −$193 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $301 −$296 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $201 +$209 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,336 +$664 +50%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $775 +$411 +53%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $2,016 +$524 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $271 +$229 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,627 +$1,313 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $504 +$895 +178%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,369 −$969 -71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$497 +245%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $636 −$635 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $346 −$337 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $346 +$52 +15%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $734 +$1,266 +172%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $495 −$495 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $381 +$719 +188%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $303 −$143 -47%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $434 +$606 +140%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $305 +$414 +136%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $313 −$312 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $508 −$502 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $657 +$343 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$221 +216%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1,269 +$861 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $739 +$283 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $228 −$106 -46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $520 −$520 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,963 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $45 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $177 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,030 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 71¢ $36 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 71¢ $182 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 71¢ $36 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 71¢ $36 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 71¢ $17 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $590 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $318 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $88 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $169 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $6 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $667 29h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 32h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 32h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 32h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $185 33h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 33h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 33h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 33h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,832.54 · official $1,832.54 (match) · 1109 history records