Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
48 0x48e1…15db sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,526 (-7%) realized −$2,591 · open +$1,065
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%33W / 19L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$559
7 days−$556
14 days−$550
30 days−$523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$884
politics 36% −$7
world 9% −$24
finance 7% +$4
other 4% +$434
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% +$7
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 60% -67.2%
≤30d 22 +10.6% +0.1% 77% 59% -52.1%
≤90d 33 +14.0% +3.1% 76% 45% -23.2%
all 52 +12.2% +1.5% 63% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 38% -15.6%
10% -8.2% 35% -23.7%
15% -17.1% 27% -31.1%
20% -25.2% 25% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$365 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$1,320
Realized−$2,591
Unrealized+$1,065
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses33 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage256d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $146 $1,207 +$1,061 (+729%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+10%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$17 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +55%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$7 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$4 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$13 +197%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$7 +60%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $586 −$580 -99%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 +$3 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 09 $35 +$5 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 28 $85 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $6 +$2 +27%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 28 $28 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 24 $58 +$1 +2%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 05 $8 +$12 +152%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April? May 01 $20 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 07 $62 −$1 -2%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 07 $30 $0 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $37 +$3 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 07 $40 +$2 +5%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 06 $380 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 05 $1,552 +$1 +0%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 26 $6 +$4 +61%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $80 −$3 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $2,964 −$2,964 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 10 $1,947 +$3,953 +203%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $977 $0 +0%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 08 $1,094 −$23 -2%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $4,066 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 25 $599 $0 -0%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Feb 24 $2,484 −$2,484 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $18 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 12 $32 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jan 05 $11 +$19 +170%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 07 $48 −$48 -100%
49ers vs. Browns Dec 01 $1,088 +$512 +47%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-23? Nov 27 $15 +$25 +163%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 18 $9 −$1 -10%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. UCLA Nov 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $173 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $170 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $2 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $8 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $61 20h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 89¢ $37 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $12 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 20h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $9 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $13 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $8 20h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 89¢ $37 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $13 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $7 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,320.03 · official $567.96 · 282 history records