Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48e2…6d30 other 1410 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$389 (-3%) realized −$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%716W / 694L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$190
14 days−$505
30 days−$716
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$540
sports 19% +$10
crypto 3% −$40
world 1% +$17
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.8% -26.5% 32% 32% -25.9%
≤30d 368 -16.4% -24.3% 40% 40% -21.7%
≤90d 1410 -5.7% -14.6% 51% 48% -13.0%
all 1410 -5.7% -14.6% 51% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 48% -13.0%
10% -22.8% 40% -21.3%
15% -30.3% 31% -28.9%
20% -37.1% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses716 / 694
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1410 / 1410
History coverage103d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1410 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 +$56 +321%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 +$67 +188%
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-24? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$50 +150%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 +$14 +105%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 +$46 +83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$25 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 +$28 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 +$46 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$52 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$79 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Sagamihara win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 74¢ $73 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $17 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $15 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $39 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $61 24h
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 19¢ $2 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL No 32¢ $3 2d
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 10¢ $0 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 82¢ $84 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 28¢ $27 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $56 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 87¢ $88 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 61¢ $63 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 66¢ $67 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 11¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $40 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $42 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $36 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $34 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 13¢ $13 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $38 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 13¢ $13 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $39 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $46 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $56 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $12 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $46 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $41 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $55 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3335 history records