Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48e3…89ad crypto 570 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$780 (+1%) realized +$780 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%509W / 61L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$373
14 days+$520
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$158
other 3% +$317
sports 1% +$226
world 0% −$18
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 42% +11.2%
≤30d 42 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 45% +14.9%
≤90d 334 -0.3% -9.8% 87% 10% -8.0%
all 570 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 9% -8.2%
10% -17.8% 4% -17.0%
15% -25.7% 3% -25.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$45 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses509 / 61
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)570 / 570
History coverage228d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 570 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $166 −$14 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$15 -75%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$15 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$15 +74%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$40 +194%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $110 +$6 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$47 +307%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $113 +$151 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$18 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $411 −$158 -38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$57 +56%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $101 +$15 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$19 +19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$18 -87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 +$116 +76%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $131 +$30 +23%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$14 -47%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$124 +122%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$23 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $96 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 06 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 06 $203 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 06 $82 −$78 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 06 $199 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 06 $84 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 06 $197 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 24¢ $152 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $38 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $38 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $44 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 68¢ $28 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $30 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 43¢ $60 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 36h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 37h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 38h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 97¢ $200 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2197 history records