Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x48e9…a433 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,518 (+18%) realized +$1,539 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,079now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$1,454
14 days+$1,441
30 days+$1,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$563
sports 42% +$870
politics 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +34.0% +21.2% 48% 48% +11.8%
≤30d 26 +32.4% +19.8% 46% 46% +11.2%
≤90d 26 +32.4% +19.8% 46% 46% +11.2%
all 26 +32.4% +19.8% 46% 46% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 46% +11.2%
10% +8.3% 46% +0.5%
15% -2.2% 38% -9.2%
20% -11.8% 31% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +96% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$190 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,079
Realized+$1,539
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $550 $541 −$9 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $550 $539 −$11 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$193 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $219 −$215 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $662 +$963 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $817 −$621 -76%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $712 +$844 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $606 −$600 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$114 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $154 −$134 -87%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $305 +$111 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $409 −$318 -78%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$364 +238%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$227 +112%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$264 +172%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$7 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $36 +$10 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $205 −$156 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $143 +$236 +165%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $156 −$13 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $562 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $563 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $11 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes $154 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $12 3h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 11h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $219 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $662 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $195 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $510 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $712 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $606 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $15 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $80 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $82 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $98 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,079.37 · official $1,079.38 (match) · 56 history records