Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48eb…4add crypto 1108 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$9,028 (-14%) realized −$9,028 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%794W / 621L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 451 -69.8% -72.7% 25% 16% -88.4%
≤30d 838 -37.1% -43.1% 45% 31% -66.4%
≤90d 1415 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 39% -41.2%
all 1415 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 39% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 39% -41.2%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 22% -46.8%
15% -43.7% 11% -51.9%
20% -49.2% 7% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$74 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,028
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses794 / 621
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1415 / 1108
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1415 Trades
no open positions (478 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during t Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $369 −$369 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $692 −$692 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$158 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$9 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $458 −$458 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records