Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x48ed…f0e2 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,014 (+1%) realized +$3,887 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate89%79W / 10L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$3,737per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$992est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.9% -3.3% 93% 40% -6.9%
≤30d 89 +2.1% -7.6% 89% 34% -7.5%
≤90d 89 +2.1% -7.6% 89% 34% -7.5%
all 89 +2.1% -7.6% 89% 34% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 34% -7.5%
10% -16.5% 11% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 6% -24.4%
20% -31.9% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$4,671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$1,367 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized+$3,887
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses79 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$992
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage28d
Avg bet$3,737
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 85¢ 100¢ $722 $850 +$127 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $408 +$91 +22%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $1,208 +$118 +10%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $1,130 +$81 +7%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1,033 +$89 +9%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $994 +$41 +4%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1,050 +$78 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $849 +$198 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $794 +$59 +7%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $646 +$147 +23%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,513 +$129 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $330 +$170 +52%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1,204 +$129 +11%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $1,055 +$158 +15%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1,009 +$51 +5%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $784 −$782 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $700 +$84 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $632 +$68 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $599 +$32 +5%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $553 +$47 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $1,993 −$413 -21%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $999 −$998 -100%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Tyler Zink Jun 02 $1,092 +$195 +18%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels Jun 02 $1,081 +$44 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $945 +$136 +14%
Birmingham: James Watt vs Harry Wendelken Jun 02 $900 +$45 +5%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $879 +$268 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $625 +$251 +40%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 01 $552 +$75 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $333 +$222 +66%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev Jun 01 $1,271 +$96 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $996 +$274 +28%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $3,705 −$3,704 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1,592 +$156 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $1,047 +$52 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $1,440 +$158 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $2,904 +$455 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $2,769 +$228 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $2,606 +$287 +11%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $119 +$5 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $3,234 +$512 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $4,671 +$190 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $4,591 +$86 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1,837 +$161 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $2,351 +$149 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $4,002 +$214 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $3,560 +$481 +14%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $2,312 +$1,258 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $1,391 −$1,384 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $1,162 +$237 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 85¢ $718 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 85¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $499 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 81¢ $408 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $1,326 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 91¢ $1,208 2h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $1,211 7h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 93¢ $1,130 8h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $1,122 19h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 92¢ $1,033 20h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $1,035 20h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 96¢ $961 20h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 96¢ $24 20h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 93¢ $9 20h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $196 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $23 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $5 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $5 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $144 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $4 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 72¢ $526 21h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 70¢ $212 22h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 70¢ $7 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $1,128 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $1,050 22h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $1,047 22h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 81¢ $849 23h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Katerina Siniakova 100¢ $853 23h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 93¢ $794 24h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 81¢ $34 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $849.58 · official $849.58 (match) · 642 history records