Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x48ef…26ad other 492 markets active 1d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$926 (+5%) realized +$905 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%217W / 125L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$47
30 days+$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$426
sports 16% +$812
world 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -17.0% -24.9% 64% 48% -15.2%
≤30d 114 -10.9% -19.4% 59% 46% +15.9%
≤90d 342 +2.2% -7.5% 63% 55% -7.5%
all 342 +2.2% -7.5% 63% 55% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 55% -7.5%
10% -16.4% 44% -16.3%
15% -24.4% 32% -24.4%
20% -31.8% 25% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$34 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,679
Realized+$905
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses217 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions150
Markets (closed)342 / 492
History coverage76d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 150 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $813 $835 +$22 (+3%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $372 $379 +$7 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 80¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 86¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 84¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $23 +$3 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Tunisia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Tunisia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 $0 +7%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 +8%
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 $0 +8%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +36%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $7 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $10 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 24h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 88¢ $2 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $3 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $7 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $13 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $9 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,678.97 · official $1,678.98 (match) · 1274 history records