Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x48ef…c913
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$45 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$44
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage57d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 5 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $7 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? May 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 21 $4 +$1 +39%
Wrestlefest: CM Punk vs. Roman Reigns Apr 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Wrestlefest: Oba Femi vs. Brock Lesnar Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Wrestlefest: Cody Rhodes vs. Randy Orton Apr 19 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$23
sports 38% −$21
crypto 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -41.1% -46.7% 29% 29% -58.9%
all 7 -41.1% -46.7% 29% 29% -58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 29% -58.9%
10% -51.8% 29% -62.8%
15% -56.5% 29% -66.4%
20% -60.7% 14% -69.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.96 · official $43.97 (match) · 22 history records