Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x48f2…7fdd sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$1,149
14 days−$363
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$324
other 33% −$293
world 2% −$99
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 45% -42.7%
≤30d 66 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% -11.1%
≤90d 66 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% -11.1%
all 71 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 42% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 42% -11.2%
10% -27.2% 35% -19.7%
15% -34.2% 34% -27.5%
20% -40.7% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$71 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage102d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 44¢ 64¢ $75 $108 +$33 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $88 −$87 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $73 +$90 +124%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $83 −$81 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $181 −$180 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $113 +$70 +62%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $77 +$108 +139%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $77 +$32 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $77 +$99 +129%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$14 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $7 +$1 +21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $58 +$25 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$8 +19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,006 −$968 -96%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $192 +$172 +89%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $172 +$20 +12%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $12 −$8 -67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $77 +$128 +165%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $77 +$134 +172%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $68 +$34 +50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $75 +$124 +165%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$86 +109%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$125 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$7 +18%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $73 +$102 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 +$14 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $76 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $88 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 44¢ $73 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $83 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 79¢ $181 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $113 35h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $77 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $77 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $101 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $77 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY 64¢ $33 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $77 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $35 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 62¢ $22 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 94¢ $8 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $7 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $77 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $84 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $58 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $39 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $719 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.89 · official $107.89 (match) · 166 history records