Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f5…c732 crypto 416 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-20%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%193W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$137
other 8% −$10
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.4% -37.9% 25% 25% -43.2%
≤30d 8 -31.4% -37.9% 25% 25% -43.2%
≤90d 8 -31.4% -37.9% 25% 25% -43.2%
all 416 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 46% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 46% -28.4%
10% -22.2% 43% -35.3%
15% -29.8% 41% -41.5%
20% -36.6% 37% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses193 / 223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)416 / 416
History coverage231d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 416 Trades
no open positions (198 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 08 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 06 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 06 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 06 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 06 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 06 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 06 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 06 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 05 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 05 $1 +$2 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 05 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 04 $1 +$2 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $4 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 776 history records