Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f7…625f crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-25%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -34.2% -40.5% 22% 22% -53.8%
≤30d 9 -34.2% -40.5% 22% 22% -53.8%
≤90d 9 -34.2% -40.5% 22% 22% -53.8%
all 9 -34.2% -40.5% 22% 22% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.5% 22% -53.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.2% 22% -58.3%
15% -51.4% 11% -62.3%
20% -56.1% 11% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +279%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records