Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f7…3aeb sports 549 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$597 (-2%) realized −$597 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%277W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$452est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 244d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,542
other 0% −$36
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +16.4% +5.3% 61% 48% -3.7%
≤30d 74 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 39% -17.6%
≤90d 363 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 47% -16.4%
all 549 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 46% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -16.6%
10% -22.4% 42% -24.6%
15% -29.9% 36% -31.9%
20% -36.8% 30% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$45 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses277 / 272
Est. fees paid−$452
Open positions0
Markets (closed)549 / 549
History coverage244d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 549 Trades
no open positions (210 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $206 −$6 -3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $411 +$11 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $189 +$121 +64%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $241 −$123 -51%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $134 +$93 +69%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $853 −$45 -5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $246 +$8 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $43 +$57 +133%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $154 −$54 -35%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $73 +$27 +37%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $107 −$7 -7%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $78 −$77 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $54 +$46 +85%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $8 +$24 +300%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $77 +$23 +30%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $59 +$41 +69%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $87 +$13 +16%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $53 +$47 +88%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $33 +$67 +206%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $33 +$67 +206%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $116 +$84 +72%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $72 +$28 +39%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $88 +$48 +54%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $106 −$105 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $161 +$39 +24%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $95 −$94 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $231 +$24 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $37 +$63 +170%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $24 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $376 −$57 -15%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $103 +$97 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $19 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $70 −$69 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $72 −$11 -16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $116 −$27 -23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $270 −$268 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $151 −$150 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $141 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 41¢ $123 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $114 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 40¢ $75 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 40¢ $125 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 57¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 56¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 50¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 67¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 68¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 34¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $53 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $55 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 33¢ $33 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1871 history records