Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48f9…e61d finance 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 1264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,384 (-3%) realized −$1,377 · open −$1,007
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate47%103W / 115L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$154
14 days−$164
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 49% +$1,961
world 38% −$466
other 7% −$1,369
crypto 3% −$181
economics 2% −$552
politics 1% +$94
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.9% -28.4% 67% 67% -16.4%
≤30d 20 -36.3% -42.4% 40% 20% -11.7%
≤90d 83 -23.1% -30.4% 45% 19% -6.1%
all 218 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 25% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 25% -5.6%
10% -30.5% 18% -14.7%
15% -37.2% 12% -22.9%
20% -43.3% 10% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$70 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1264d coverage
Net worth$1,698
Realized−$1,377
Unrealized−$1,007
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses103 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions35
Markets (closed)218 / 253
History coverage1264d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $355 $253 −$102 (-29%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $250 $216 −$34 (-14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $190 $176 −$14 (-7%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $122 $106 −$17 (-14%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $108 $105 −$3 (-3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $102 $95 −$7 (-7%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $101 $81 −$20 (-20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+4%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $483 $66 −$417 (-86%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $59 $66 +$7 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $72 $64 −$8 (-11%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 22¢ $16 $45 +$29 (+181%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $53 $34 −$19 (-35%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $42 $32 −$11 (-25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $184 $28 −$156 (-85%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+14%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $142 $25 −$117 (-82%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+33%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-18%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 21¢ $3 $21 +$18 (+645%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $27 $14 −$14 (-51%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $68 $11 −$57 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $108 +$21 +19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $290 −$227 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $287 +$51 +18%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $972 −$56 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $20 −$17 -89%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1,982 −$5 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $485 −$219 -45%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $1,009 +$50 +5%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 24 $166 −$52 -31%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 24 $17 +$5 +31%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 24 $55 −$33 -60%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 24 $27 −$17 -62%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? May 24 $10 −$3 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $134 +$102 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $871 +$40 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $51 −$2 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $91 −$55 -60%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $79 −$6 -8%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 16 $55 +$7 +12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $39 −$13 -34%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 11 $239 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 10 $40 −$5 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $152 +$152 +100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $485 +$1,784 +368%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June May 08 $31 −$23 -74%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? May 03 $8 −$8 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 01 $499 +$6 +1%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meet May 01 $670 +$54 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $1,834 −$268 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $1,735 −$32 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $106 −$59 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $81 −$72 -89%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $635 +$9 +2%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 27 $770 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $956 +$137 +14%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $835 +$201 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $259 +$16 +6%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 23 $27 −$20 -75%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $42 −$12 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $1,125 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 22¢ $42 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 2h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 4h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 4h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $156 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 34h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 3¢ $3 35h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 35h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 35h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $7 35h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $4 35h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 27¢ $18 35h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 35h
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $111 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $8 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 23¢ $11 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 22¢ $19 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,698.43 · official $1,699.88 (match) · 3019 history records