Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x48fe…825c other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$262 (+18%) realized +$247 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 30L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$79
sports 22% +$132
crypto 4% −$53
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -10.4% -18.9% 17% 17% -0.6%
≤30d 36 -10.4% -18.9% 17% 17% -0.6%
≤90d 36 -10.4% -18.9% 17% 17% -0.6%
all 36 -10.4% -18.9% 17% 17% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 17% -0.6%
10% -26.7% 17% -10.2%
15% -33.8% 17% -18.8%
20% -40.3% 17% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$26 · ×5.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 30
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+29%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $268 +$249 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 +$344 +1115%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$129 +250%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$115 +226%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $6 +$44 +784%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 12h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $375 29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.07 · official $85.07 (match) · 57 history records