Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4907…cdc2 world 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$132 (-2%) realized −$65 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%60W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day112.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$36
14 days+$22
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$62
other 13% −$84
politics 4% −$28
economics 4% −$3
sports 3% +$14
finance 3% −$25
tech 2% −$18
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -6.8% -15.7% 32% 16% -11.0%
≤30d 194 -6.1% -15.0% 31% 15% -9.7%
≤90d 194 -6.1% -15.0% 31% 15% -9.7%
all 194 -6.1% -15.0% 31% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 15% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 11% -18.4%
15% -30.6% 10% -26.3%
20% -37.4% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses60 / 134
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions32
Markets (closed)194 / 226
History coverage22d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day112.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $48 $54 +$7 (+14%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? No 60¢ 81¢ $36 $49 +$12 (+34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 44¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 53¢ 62¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 9¢ 29¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+223%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $50 $13 −$38 (-75%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $8 −$28 (-78%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $47 −$7 -14%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 17 $20 +$33 +164%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $81 $0 -1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $66 −$1 -2%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$4 -12%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 15 $192 −$48 -25%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -48%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $45 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$67 +167%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $157 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -35%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$4 -17%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $45 −$3 -6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $182 −$35 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $41 50m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 84¢ $1 3h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 82¢ $5 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 55¢ $5 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $3 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $0 6h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 90¢ $42 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $2 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $7 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $3 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $2 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $3 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.78 · official $386.02 (match) · 2478 history records