Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4907…f72a sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,846 (-4%) realized −$1,846 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%30W / 26L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$878per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$685est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$624
7 days−$1,092
14 days−$993
30 days+$2,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,729
other 7% +$1,759
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -20.6%
≤30d 33 +11.5% +0.9% 61% 61% +1.3%
≤90d 56 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 54% -13.2%
all 56 -0.5% -10.0% 54% 54% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 54% -13.2%
10% -18.6% 52% -21.5%
15% -26.5% 46% -29.1%
20% -33.7% 46% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$728 vs −$915 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses30 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$685
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage81d
Avg bet$878
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $138 −$136 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $405 +$309 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $608 +$474 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $340 +$351 +103%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$173 +85%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 +$171 +84%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$227 +112%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,296 −$2,268 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$288 +95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 −$73 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $125 +$122 +98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $228 −$225 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $102 +$98 +97%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$21 +21%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 25 $1,015 +$985 +97%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 25 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5 May 24 $305 +$300 +98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2,012 +$488 +24%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 24 $1,778 +$929 +52%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5 May 23 $1,422 −$1,400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 21 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,106 +$1,422 +129%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $2,411 +$2,307 +96%
Will Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? May 18 $836 +$285 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 10 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $4,073 −$4,001 -98%
AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $100 +$95 +95%
Melbourne City FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $2,695 +$4,215 +156%
Stoke City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $1,404 +$1,144 +81%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $5,039 −$4,962 -98%
AS Roma vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $3,900 −$3,839 -98%
FC Twente '65 vs. FC Volendam: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $4,078 +$4,117 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $37 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $1,015 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $22 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $14 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records