Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4907…9202 politics 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%61W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$24
other 25% $0
world 13% −$22
sports 11% +$1
crypto 7% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 91 -0.5% -9.9% 8% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 156 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.8%
all 252 -0.6% -10.1% 24% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses61 / 191
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)252 / 256
History coverage137d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 08 $8 $0 -5%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 -1%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 7h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 9h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 11h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 11h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 12h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 72¢ $9 12h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 72¢ $9 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $8 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $7 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $7 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $9 5d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 1277 history records