Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x490e…d550
crypto · 758 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$1,119 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,119 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses415 / 343
Open positions0
Markets (closed)758 / 758
History coverage71d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 758 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$166
14 days−$96
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $367 $0 −$367 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $130 +$136 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $128 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 27 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $234 −$227 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $47 +$36 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $48 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 27 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $47 +$35 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 26 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $48 +$54 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 25 $21 +$49 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 25 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $48 +$39 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 25 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 24 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 24 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 24 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 23 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 23 $47 +$36 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 23 $233 +$121 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 23 $47 +$31 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 23 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 22 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 22 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 22 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 21 $21 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $130 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $128 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $155 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $155 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $47 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $234 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $47 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $48 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $47 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $47 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $48 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $47 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $48 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +76.6% +59.8% 100% 100% +69.0%
≤30d 70 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 57% -12.5%
≤90d 758 -3.8% -13.0% 55% 54% -10.8%
all 758 -3.8% -13.0% 55% 54% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 54% -10.8%
10% -21.3% 54% -19.4%
15% -28.9% 54% -27.2%
20% -35.9% 52% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1480 history records