Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x490e…123a
weather · 653 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$358 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$197 · open +$93
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$200
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses288 / 355
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions10
Markets (closed)643 / 653
History coverage53d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 10 History 643 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$87
14 days−$108
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Nadia Podoroska 32¢ 100¢ $29 $90 +$62 (+215%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 48¢ 100¢ $13 $27 +$14 (+107%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Germany 33¢ 100¢ $9 $26 +$17 (+202%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 85¢ 81¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 86¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 18¢ 70¢ $4 $14 +$11 (+283%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 54¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$26 +402%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -80%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$39 +370%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +245%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$19 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $8 +$11 +135%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$10 +345%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 34% −$26
weather 18% +$320
sports 17% −$91
world 13% +$276
other 11% −$167
finance 4% +$10
politics 2% −$20
tech 1% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $9 2m
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 25¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 25¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 25¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 32¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $5 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 33¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -16.5% -24.4% 29% 18% -16.6%
≤30d 316 -13.1% -21.3% 31% 21% -14.8%
≤90d 643 +2.5% -7.3% 45% 24% -9.2%
all 643 +2.5% -7.3% 45% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 24% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 17% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 14% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.16 · official $201.09 (match) · 3280 history records