Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
49 0x490f…a02d sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$355 (+22%) realized +$446 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$571
7 days+$767
14 days+$749
30 days+$749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$674
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +57.5% +42.5% 53% 53% +38.7%
≤30d 66 +52.7% +38.2% 52% 52% +36.9%
≤90d 66 +52.7% +38.2% 52% 52% +36.9%
all 66 +52.7% +38.2% 52% 52% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.2% 52% +36.9%
10% +24.9% 52% +23.8%
15% +12.9% 52% +11.9%
20% +1.8% 47% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 32¢ $72 $50 −$22 (-31%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 4¢ $45 $6 −$39 (-86%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $58 +$265 +453%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $66 +$125 +188%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 +$36 +237%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 +$40 +91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $17 +$104 +596%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $66 +$141 +212%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $63 +$51 +81%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$48 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $33 +$15 +45%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 +$42 +254%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$14 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 +$44 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$42 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$19 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$24 +77%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $16 +$36 +222%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +95%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $13 +$14 +107%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $38 −$35 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 +$22 +711%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 +$40 +324%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$49 +123%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $28 +$30 +106%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $8 +$19 +237%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 +$8 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $57 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $31 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $121 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $83 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $38 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $36 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $26 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $20 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $44 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $17 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $207 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $114 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $36 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $93 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.32 · official $66.51 · 153 history records