Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
49 0x4911…7ba8 sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,730 (+20%) realized +$14,743 · open −$1,013
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%58W / 47L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$710est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$13,405
other 20% −$1,807
crypto 1% −$900
world 1% −$600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +32.4% +19.8% 55% 55% +6.3%
≤30d 105 +32.4% +19.8% 55% 55% +6.3%
≤90d 105 +32.4% +19.8% 55% 55% +6.3%
all 105 +32.4% +19.8% 55% 55% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.8% 55% +6.3%
10% +8.3% 53% -3.9%
15% ← realistic here -2.1% 51% -13.2%
20% -11.7% 40% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$611) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$504 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,148
Realized+$14,743
Unrealized−$1,013
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses58 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$710
Open positions7
Markets (closed)105 / 112
History coverage6d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $1,700 $2,614 +$914 (+54%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $477 $1 −$476 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 72¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $384 $0 −$384 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,611 −$1,600 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $708 −$700 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,308 +$317 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,296 +$874 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $760 +$556 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $303 +$132 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $658 +$424 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $410 +$1,941 +473%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,899 +$674 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,309 +$1,867 +143%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2,501 +$1,147 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$231 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $407 +$644 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,109 +$396 +36%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 +$426 +139%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,126 +$1,576 +74%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $714 −$700 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $509 −$500 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,111 −$1,100 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $307 −$300 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $605 −$600 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $308 −$300 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $609 −$600 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $612 −$600 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,022 +$926 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $748 +$373 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $336 −$330 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $501 −$490 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $418 −$410 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $436 −$430 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $562 −$550 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $670 −$660 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $482 −$470 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $676 +$642 +95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $575 +$262 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $336 −$330 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,747 −$1,720 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $610 −$600 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,394 −$1,380 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $303 +$151 +50%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $303 +$165 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $406 +$462 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $606 +$302 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $407 +$519 +128%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $305 +$376 +123%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $302 +$60 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $305 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,107 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $501 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $306 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $180 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 72¢ $403 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $409 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,718 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $386 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $760 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $739 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $434 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,082 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,351 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,573 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,176 20h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,648 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $596 20h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $871 20h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $669 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $666 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $557 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $658 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,308 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $303 22h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $961 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,233 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $410 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,147.92 · official $3,147.92 (match) · 207 history records