Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4911…bbf7 crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$189 (-24%) realized −$142 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%26W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$237
14 days−$227
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$107
sports 25% −$123
world 12% −$47
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -26.5% -33.5% 23% 15% -46.3%
≤30d 107 -28.3% -35.1% 24% 18% -41.9%
≤90d 107 -28.3% -35.1% 24% 18% -41.9%
all 107 -28.3% -35.1% 24% 18% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 18% -41.9%
10% -41.3% 12% -47.5%
15% -47.0% 9% -52.6%
20% -52.2% 7% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses26 / 81
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage24d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No $94 $47 −$47 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $106 −$100 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -13%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -15%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +54%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $2 $0 +16%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $1 −$1 -62%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $3 $0 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -33%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $2 $0 -19%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $7 $0 -1%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -81%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -72%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -74%
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -77%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -79%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -74%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -70%
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -69%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -32%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 18 $1 $0 -19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -23%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -63%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -23%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $79 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $104 8h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $14 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $1 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $1 17h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 17h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.00 · official $47.00 (match) · 283 history records