Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4912…b76f sports 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51,252 (-15%) realized −$51,189 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%134W / 207L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$981per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$3,362est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,535
7 days+$2,535
14 days+$2,535
30 days+$2,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$36,175
other 35% −$13,931
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.1% -41.3% 40% 40% +12.1%
≤30d 6 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 50% +13.6%
≤90d 341 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 38% -23.2%
all 341 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 38% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 38% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 37% -30.5%
15% -38.0% 36% -37.2%
20% -44.1% 33% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$702) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$924 vs −$840 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10,034
Realized−$51,189
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses134 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$3,362
Open positions14
Markets (closed)341 / 355
History coverage72d
Avg bet$981
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $2,668 $2,641 −$27 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $2,344 $2,319 −$24 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $1,387 $1,377 −$9 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sharks 56¢ 58¢ $1,283 $1,341 +$57 (+4%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 64¢ 64¢ $1,042 $1,034 −$8 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 50¢ $315 $303 −$12 (-4%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $277 $270 −$7 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 14¢ 15¢ $228 $244 +$16 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B FOKUS 47¢ 48¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 45¢ 44¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs Atrix Esports 40¢ 42¢ $104 $108 +$4 (+4%)
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage For Fun Esports 28¢ 28¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 19¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Sashi Esport 32¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $596 +$578 +97%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $301 −$298 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Paci Jun 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9,384 +$2,568 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $246 −$243 -99%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu May 25 $467 +$290 +62%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: May 21 $132 −$91 -69%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le May 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-05-12? May 16 $231 +$96 +42%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $139 +$286 +206%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $1,837 −$1,812 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $267 −$261 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 13 $261 −$257 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics May 10 $285 −$279 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $2,964 −$2,936 -99%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4,452 −$4,386 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs TNC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage May 08 $84 −$82 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $1,503 +$2,531 +168%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $59 +$73 +124%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers Lea May 06 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: WIP (-1.5) vs F9 EICAR (+1.5) May 06 $71 +$104 +146%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $105 +$216 +206%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 06 $251 +$431 +172%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 05 $154 −$151 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $227 −$223 -98%
Map Handicap: EG.A (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5) May 04 $93 −$91 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 04 $398 −$392 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 04 $262 +$433 +165%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $111 +$433 +388%
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 04 $25 −$24 -97%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-01? May 03 $941 −$924 -98%
Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls May 03 $189 +$144 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $2,037 +$769 +38%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $7,532 −$7,419 -98%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 02 $136 +$149 +109%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 02 $1,111 +$1,319 +119%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 02 $2,676 +$2,853 +107%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $115 −$114 -99%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 02 $141 −$139 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 02 $141 −$139 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega May 02 $90 −$88 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 02 $830 −$817 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? May 02 $813 −$801 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season May 02 $149 −$147 -98%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha May 01 $324 −$319 -98%
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team - Game 1 Winner May 01 $58 −$58 -98%
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seas May 01 $143 −$140 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $271 −$265 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $699 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $699 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $283 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $320 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $1,053 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $502 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $502 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $502 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $600 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $603 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 40¢ $106 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North Am BUY For Fun Esports 28¢ $86 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2,380 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $70 9h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 56¢ $1,300 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $137 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $96 10h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 66¢ $65 10h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 66¢ $34 10h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 66¢ $202 10h
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Paci BUY Barbie Boys 14¢ $72 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $294 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $302 19h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 47¢ $131 19h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 32¢ $49 20h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $122 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $246 20h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1,265 21h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1,265 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,034.27 · official $10,034.28 (match) · 1163 history records