Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4912…eab8 crypto 976 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$432 (-8%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%343W / 632L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$77
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$76
weather 44% −$288
other 9% −$97
sports 1% −$4
world 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -59.7% -63.5% 0% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 10 -15.3% -23.4% 20% 10% -20.3%
≤90d 19 -53.1% -57.5% 11% 5% -39.1%
all 975 -25.8% -32.9% 35% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 35% -16.8%
10% -39.3% 34% -24.8%
15% -45.1% 26% -32.0%
20% -50.5% 24% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses343 / 632
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)975 / 976
History coverage141d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 975 Trades
no open positions (497 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $347 −$67 -19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN Jun 16 $12 +$56 +450%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20? Apr 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15? Apr 15 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? Mar 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 2 Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 26? Mar 26 $29 −$16 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 24? Mar 24 $28 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17? Mar 17 $8 −$7 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 15? Mar 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 15? Mar 15 $13 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 15? Mar 15 $36 −$16 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 14? Mar 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 14? Mar 14 $50 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on March 13? Mar 12 $34 −$9 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on March 13? Mar 12 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 12? Mar 12 $70 +$29 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 12? Mar 12 $38 +$12 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 12? Mar 12 $17 −$10 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 12? Mar 12 $12 +$36 +304%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12? Mar 12 $27 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 12? Mar 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9? Mar 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9? Mar 09 $58 −$9 -16%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 5? Mar 05 $12 +$11 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 5? Mar 04 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 5? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 5? Mar 04 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 5? Mar 04 $0 $0 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 5? Mar 04 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 04 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 04 $2 +$2 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 03 $4 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 03 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $279 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 20¢ $48 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN SELL 39¢ $68 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 7¢ $12 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $336 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 63d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 69d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 2 BUY Yes 6¢ $2 88d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 26? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2456 history records