Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4916…c3af world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$3
other 22% +$8
politics 11% −$3
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 0% -10.1%
all 34 -7.4% -16.2% 24% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 9% -9.3%
10% -24.2% 6% -18.0%
15% -31.5% 6% -25.9%
20% -38.2% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage296d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $157 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $9 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $10 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $39 +$22 +57%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $36 −$1 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $38 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $37 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $6 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $8 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $0 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $8 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.12 · official $41.12 (match) · 127 history records