Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4918…ece6 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-8%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -13.0% -21.3% 35% 35% -63.8%
≤30d 23 -13.0% -21.3% 35% 35% -63.8%
≤90d 23 -13.0% -21.3% 35% 35% -63.8%
all 23 -13.0% -21.3% 35% 35% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 35% -63.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 35% -67.3%
15% -35.7% 35% -70.4%
20% -42.0% 35% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$32 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$45 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $157 +$53 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $83 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $173 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $129 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records