Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x491d…e425 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,414 (+6%) realized +$3,414 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,764per market
Trades / day151.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$4,278
other 9% −$429
sports 6% +$2,182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +6.3% -3.9% 61% 55% -13.7%
≤30d 31 +6.3% -3.9% 61% 55% -13.7%
≤90d 31 +6.3% -3.9% 61% 55% -13.7%
all 31 +6.3% -3.9% 61% 55% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 55% -13.7%
10% -13.1% 52% -22.0%
15% ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -29.5%
20% -29.2% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,355) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$641 vs −$1,225 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,764
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $572 −$572 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $226 +$311 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $192 +$70 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5,470 −$5,369 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,039 +$2,182 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2,214 +$1,155 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,552 +$616 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,629 −$29 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4,671 −$3,472 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3,785 +$1,118 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,003 −$311 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $2,238 +$698 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2,355 +$1,160 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,918 +$452 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1,212 +$733 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $759 +$414 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $442 +$402 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,343 −$1,283 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,252 −$966 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3,072 −$587 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2,406 +$152 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1,235 +$908 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2,464 −$1,655 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,801 +$62 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,223 +$477 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,235 +$166 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $616 +$383 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $638 −$310 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,988 +$721 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,082 −$89 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $107 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $424 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $40 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $538 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $200 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $262 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $192 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $444 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $445 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $445 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $447 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $445 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $448 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $447 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $447 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $449 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $449 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $451 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $453 44m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5,221 45m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3,369 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records