Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x491e…3489 other 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+6%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%78W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$39
crypto 1% −$10
tech 1% +$8
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +17.5% +6.3% 35% 30% +0.5%
≤30d 70 -7.1% -16.0% 29% 27% -3.7%
≤90d 195 -5.0% -14.1% 34% 30% -4.6%
all 238 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 29% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 29% -5.3%
10% -22.7% 24% -14.4%
15% -30.2% 20% -22.6%
20% -37.0% 17% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses78 / 160
Open positions5
Markets (closed)238 / 243
History coverage112d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$4 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$12 +471%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -31%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $3 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $4 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$19 +405%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$4 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $17 +$12 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$4 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $17 +$13 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $9 −$4 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 +$26 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 15m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 45m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 40h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 99¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.36 · official $12.36 (match) · 1055 history records