Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4920…2ef4
crypto · 786 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,292 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,186 · open −$106
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,440
Realized−$9,186
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses586 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$793
Open positions27
Markets (closed)759 / 786
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1,111
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 27 History 759 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$1,670
14 days+$6,798
30 days+$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3,499 $3,596 +$97 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,200 $3,196 −$4 (-0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 44¢ 44¢ $2,310 $2,284 −$26 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2,272 $2,021 −$251 (-11%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $2,000 $1,857 −$143 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1,400 $1,406 +$6 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1,000 $1,011 +$11 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 84¢ $500 $725 +$225 (+45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $701 $694 −$7 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $600 $603 +$3 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 97¢ 96¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $600 $593 −$7 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $500 $501 +$2 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 55¢ $80 $96 +$16 (+20%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 51¢ 42¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-17%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $405 −$401 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,153 +$124 +11%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,713 +$753 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $203 −$165 -82%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $505 −$500 -99%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $201 +$32 +16%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $336 +$123 +37%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3,104 +$139 +4%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $203 +$10 +5%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $253 −$241 -95%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $903 −$900 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $508 +$91 +18%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $301 +$33 +11%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $392 +$101 +26%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $152 +$107 +70%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3,503 +$105 +3%
Georgia vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $116 −$115 -99%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $111 +$25 +23%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $542 +$75 +14%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $405 +$251 +62%
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $655 +$195 +30%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-05-29? Jun 02 $607 +$346 +57%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $153 −$150 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $152 +$99 +65%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1 $0 +24%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5 May 30 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $502 +$93 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$44 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $803 +$86 +11%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $7,386 +$7,351 +100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 28 $304 +$284 +93%
CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5 May 28 $406 +$410 +101%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 28 $742 +$265 +36%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $193 +$209 +108%
Jannik Sinner vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 27 $12,406 +$208 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 27 $10,006 −$10,000 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $610 −$600 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6,121 −$2,991 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$13,621
sports 25% −$17,485
other 22% +$21,054
tech 1% +$379
world 0% +$229
finance 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $81 20m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $2,237 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $506 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $112 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $40 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $610 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $609 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,218 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $3,202 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $601 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $404 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 51¢ $878 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 52¢ $189 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 54¢ $596 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 56¢ $357 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 56¢ $194 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 56¢ $183 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 56¢ $196 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 61¢ $195 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $306 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 48¢ $522 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $1 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $678 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $1,018 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $1,018 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 40% -22.1%
≤30d 81 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 48% -8.6%
≤90d 724 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 34% -10.5%
all 759 -2.9% -12.1% 77% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 33% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 20% -19.0%
15% -28.2% 13% -26.8%
20% -35.3% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,440.32 · official $20,440.32 (match) · 2798 history records