Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4920…2b87 weather 107 markets active 6h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,205 (+20%) realized +$3,205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 78L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$92
14 days−$211
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$3,056
other 16% +$815
politics 11% −$651
weather 6% −$97
world 1% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.6% -21.0% 5% 3% -19.6%
≤30d 68 -13.8% -22.0% 6% 4% -33.2%
≤90d 91 -7.7% -16.4% 18% 16% +3.7%
all 106 +2.0% -7.7% 26% 25% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 25% +9.0%
10% -16.6% 24% -1.4%
15% -24.6% 22% -10.9%
20% -32.0% 20% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$63 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage159d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? No 84¢ 76¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$5 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $40 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $26 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$6 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $38 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $43 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $42 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? SELL No 13¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? SELL No 29¢ $3 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 29¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 46¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 46¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 47¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 51¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 83¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records