Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4921…e6a3 crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%172W / 17L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$56
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 64 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 189 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×56.29 per $1 lost it wins $56.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses172 / 17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)189 / 194
History coverage176d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $184 $184 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? Jun 18 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 18? Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 16? Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $353 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $352 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $348 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $349 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on May 31? Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 31? Jun 01 $165 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 31? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $313 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $312 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $312 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $312 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 24? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? May 24 $262 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 22 $311 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $311 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 15 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 6? May 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? May 01 $345 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $346 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $344 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $344 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $344 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 16 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $343 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $342 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $342 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $342 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 07 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 5? Apr 05 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 4? Apr 04 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 02 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $340 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $75 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $184 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $70 25h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $110 2d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $175 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $69 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $81 7d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $110 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $163 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $353 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $353 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $352 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $352 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $352 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $111 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $240 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $350 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $348 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $349 16d
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $165 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $106 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $313 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $312 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $312 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $312 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $262 26d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $49 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.86 · official $354.86 (match) · 434 history records