Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
49 0x4922…f692 crypto 30 markets active 1d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$29 (+59%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.1% -39.4% 40% 40% -29.7%
≤30d 30 +15.9% +4.8% 37% 37% +39.6%
≤90d 30 +15.9% +4.8% 37% 37% +39.6%
all 30 +15.9% +4.8% 37% 37% +39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 37% +39.6%
10% -5.2% 37% +26.3%
15% -14.4% 30% +14.1%
20% -22.8% 23% +2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$39 +1201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records