Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4924…3782
sports · 347 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$5,108,540 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,108,540 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 0 History 347 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165,481
7 days−$6,586
14 days−$88,756
30 days−$1,543,984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $157,401 +$165,481 +105%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $384,413 +$344,348 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $217,427 +$237,943 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $144,663 −$144,663 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 07 $147,175 −$147,175 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $167,731 −$167,731 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 07 $294,790 −$294,790 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $345,517 −$345,517 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 01 $23,356 −$23,356 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $9,587 +$10,079 +105%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $79,448 +$71,168 +90%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $149,573 +$61,653 +41%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $144,940 +$143,801 +99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $9,785 +$9,498 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $89,313 +$110,402 +124%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 28 $10,258 +$16,951 +165%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $376,566 +$253,926 +67%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $247,868 −$247,868 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $232,171 −$232,171 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 26 $13,337 −$13,337 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 26 $15,460 −$15,460 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 26 $42,920 −$42,920 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 26 $39,452 −$39,452 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $174,507 −$174,507 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $336,356 −$336,356 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $340,510 +$246,666 +72%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $18,418 +$12,420 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $214,891 +$192,495 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 24 $32,708 +$77,381 +237%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $15,119 −$15,119 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $36,747 −$36,747 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $73,703 −$73,703 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $148,252 −$148,252 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $224,072 −$224,072 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $352,415 +$184,128 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 23 $20,038 −$20,038 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 23 $19,631 −$19,631 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 23 $18,969 −$18,969 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $34,056 −$34,056 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 23 $73,696 −$73,696 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 23 $154,538 −$154,538 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $292,327 −$292,327 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $386,223 −$386,223 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $105,141 +$98,696 +94%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $75,009 −$75,009 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $15,458 +$15,001 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $1,709 +$1,658 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 13 $23,158 +$19,929 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $218,645 +$214,506 +98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $10,371 −$10,371 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$5,232,918
other 0% −$124,378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $157,401 35h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $9,377 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $22,996 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $352,039 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $58,270 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $159,158 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $11,557 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $156,174 5d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $12,949 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $4,011 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $14,352 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $4,249 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $8,900 6d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $117,362 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $661 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $753 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $28 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $106,734 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $21,838 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $1 6d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $294,790 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $201,928 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $115,256 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $1,476 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $26,857 9d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 45¢ $23,356 11d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $6,597 12d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $10,713 12d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $62,138 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.7% -21.9% 43% 43% -9.9%
≤30d 47 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -31.0%
≤90d 347 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 54% +1.0%
all 347 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 54% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 54% +1.0%
10% -12.3% 54% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here -20.7% 54% -17.5%
20% -28.5% 53% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records