Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4924…45f6 other 57 markets active 10h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 82% −$14
politics 12% −$8
other 3% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$48
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -29.0%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 12% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 42 -8.6% -17.3% 17% 10% -13.9%
all 56 -7.0% -15.9% 18% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 7% -9.9%
10% -23.9% 7% -18.5%
15% -31.3% 5% -26.4%
20% -38.0% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage592d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $44 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $7 +$9 +114%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $34 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 18 $7 +$4 +55%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $5 +$8 +146%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $67 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $84 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $13,545 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $13 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 9h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 31h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 33h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $6 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 26d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.88 · official $14.88 (match) · 236 history records