Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4925…791c world 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%29W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$7
other 26% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 3% −$16
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.6% -10.0% 30% 1% -9.6%
all 97 -1.6% -11.0% 30% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses29 / 68
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage339d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $59 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $116 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $174 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $63 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $186 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $243 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $125 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $244 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $67 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $63 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $129 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $60 −$4 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $59 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $53 −$6 -11%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $51 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $127 +$1 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $255 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $268 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $127 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $65 7m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $65 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $58 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $59 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $46 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $14 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $59 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $59 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 20¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 20¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $42 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.00 · 402 history records