Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4928…87ae other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1
politics 23% $0
world 22% −$4
crypto 6% +$1
sports 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.8% -12.9% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 6 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 6 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 0% -11.2%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage458d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 −$3 -13%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $15 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 02 $1 $0 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be more than 38 million in South Korean election? Jun 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 30 $14 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $43 24d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? SELL No 95¢ $15 344d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? BUY No 96¢ $15 344d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $9 344d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $7 344d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $15 344d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $16 344d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $15 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records