Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x4929…3e37 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$84
sports 4% −$10
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 45% -4.6%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 45% -4.6%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 45% -4.6%
all 11 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 45% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 45% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 9% -13.7%
15% -26.8% 9% -22.1%
20% -33.9% 9% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$92 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $322 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $263 +$50 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $163 +$140 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $302 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $301 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $263 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $163 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 2h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $10 6h
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6h
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6h
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.26 · official $71.26 (match) · 39 history records