Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x492a…462e
crypto · 848 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$56 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses353 / 494
Open positions1
Markets (closed)847 / 848
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day468.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 847 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$8 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$27 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$7 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$56
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 847 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 41% -10.5%
≤30d 847 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 41% -10.5%
≤90d 847 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 41% -10.5%
all 847 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 41% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover468.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 41% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 40% -19.0%
15% -32.6% 33% -26.8%
20% -39.2% 27% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $9.90 (match) · 1897 history records