Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x492d…9487 crypto 746 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,345 (+2%) realized +$1,791 · open +$554
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate76%560W / 177L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,324
world 8% +$1,217
other 5% −$129
sports 0% +$40
politics 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -5.0% -14.1% 77% 38% -12.5%
≤30d 186 -2.6% -11.8% 80% 40% -11.8%
≤90d 737 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 31% -9.9%
all 737 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 31% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 31% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 11% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 5% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$50 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$2,949
Realized+$1,791
Unrealized+$554
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses560 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)737 / 746
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $1,257 $2,094 +$836 (+67%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $353 $396 +$43 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 59¢ 22¢ $412 $150 −$262 (-64%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+5%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 56¢ $90 $56 −$34 (-37%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 80¢ 95¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+19%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 70¢ 16¢ $46 $11 −$35 (-76%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 61¢ 92¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes 74¢ 31¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-58%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-69%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,713 +$49 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1,901 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $404 −$398 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1,113 +$131 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $536 +$82 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $845 −$43 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2,901 +$220 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $505 +$87 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,193 −$566 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,293 −$757 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1,341 −$382 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $609 +$154 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$58 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1,210 −$762 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $242 +$37 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$69 -68%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $265 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,242 +$58 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $760 +$40 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $167 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $576 +$87 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $242 +$41 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $465 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $462 +$75 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $753 +$91 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1,252 +$81 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $801 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,276 −$40 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $505 −$313 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $405 +$72 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $403 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $402 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1,202 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $270 −$217 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $17 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $41 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $42 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $39 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $184 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $55 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $29 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,949.10 · official $2,949.15 (match) · 3500 history records