Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x492e…c50b weather 1081 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$886 (+2%) realized +$851 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%877W / 11L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day294.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$469
14 days+$1,291
30 days+$1,291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 850 +1.1% -8.6% 99% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 888 +3.9% -6.0% 99% 2% -6.7%
≤90d 888 +3.9% -6.0% 99% 2% -6.7%
all 888 +3.9% -6.0% 99% 2% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover294.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 2% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 2% -15.7%
15% -23.2% 2% -23.8%
20% -30.7% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$36 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$8,390
Realized+$851
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses877 / 11
Open positions193
Markets (closed)888 / 1081
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day294.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 193 History 888 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $272 $276 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 97¢ 96¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $164 $165 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $162 $165 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $156 $158 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $156 $157 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $149 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $94 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $133 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 16? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $161 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $10 6m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $11 7m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $9 10m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 32m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 33m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 37m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,389.72 · official $8,386.01 (match) · 3500 history records