Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x492f…8144 world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$122 · open +$104
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$38
finance 5% −$6
economics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.4% -43.4% 25% 25% -29.1%
≤30d 4 -37.4% -43.4% 25% 25% -29.1%
≤90d 4 -37.4% -43.4% 25% 25% -29.1%
all 4 -37.4% -43.4% 25% 25% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.4% 25% -29.1%
10% -48.8% 25% -35.9%
15% -53.7% 25% -42.1%
20% -58.3% 25% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$58 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 36¢ 95¢ $65 $172 +$107 (+164%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $140 $114 −$26 (-19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 38¢ 90¢ $20 $48 +$28 (+138%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $91 +$90 +99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $230 −$113 -49%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.26 · official $389.26 (match) · 18 history records