Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x4930…82ab other 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,065 (-9%) realized −$1,796 · open −$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%88W / 92L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$420
14 days−$148
30 days+$1,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$1,593
world 31% −$108
other 26% −$3,191
finance 7% −$677
politics 3% −$37
tech 1% −$39
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.3% -20.6% 53% 6% -16.2%
≤30d 41 +63.2% +47.6% 59% 34% -6.4%
≤90d 93 +15.9% +4.8% 52% 33% -11.6%
all 180 +7.0% -3.2% 49% 34% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 34% -23.6%
10% -12.5% 26% -30.9%
15% -20.9% 19% -37.6%
20% -28.7% 13% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$62 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,893
Realized−$1,796
Unrealized−$269
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses88 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)180 / 207
History coverage232d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026? Yes 48¢ 69¢ $381 $546 +$165 (+43%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $189 $207 +$18 (+10%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $180 $199 +$19 (+11%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $192 −$7 (-4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $347 $186 −$161 (-46%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 58¢ $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 63¢ 74¢ $63 $74 +$11 (+17%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $49 $63 +$14 (+29%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 46¢ 44¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $27 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? Yes 39¢ 11¢ $73 $21 −$53 (-72%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $190 $12 −$178 (-94%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $36 $6 −$29 (-82%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 47¢ 26¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $39 $3 −$36 (-93%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $111 −$102 -92%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,061 +$97 +9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 15 $13 −$7 -54%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $135 −$23 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $119 +$136 +114%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $386 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,471 −$354 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $231 +$19 +8%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $194 +$17 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $64 −$56 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $157 −$155 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $627 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +24%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $154 +$28 +18%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $490 +$144 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? Jun 04 $27 +$122 +445%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +196%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +246%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,255 +$859 +38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 02 $87 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $125 +$81 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $574 +$11 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $297 −$30 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $796 +$353 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 27 $251 −$145 -58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $503 +$63 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 -44%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $345 +$44 +13%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? May 15 $51 −$16 -30%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 15 $20 −$7 -33%
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 09 $200 −$195 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 06 $28 +$18 +66%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 3¢ $9 16m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 2¢ $2 58m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $200 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $25 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $38 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $472 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $34 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $50 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 86¢ $25 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 86¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 25¢ $25 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $11 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $130 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $128 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,892.54 · official $1,892.65 (match) · 1276 history records