Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4930…0bad other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$711 (+46%) realized +$702 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 39L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days+$543
14 days+$900
30 days+$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$152
sports 47% +$888
world 3% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +12.8% +2.1% 17% 17% +50.2%
≤30d 45 +9.4% -1.0% 16% 16% +45.4%
≤90d 46 +7.0% -3.2% 15% 15% +43.0%
all 46 +7.0% -3.2% 15% 15% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 15% +43.0%
10% -12.4% 15% +29.3%
15% -20.9% 15% +16.8%
20% -28.7% 15% +5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$24 · ×9.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$702
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 39
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage31d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 5¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 2¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $133 −$130 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $23 +$197 +874%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 +$252 +1116%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$26 +100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$611 +596%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$449 +874%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $154 −$150 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $36 −$35 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $120 −$20 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 1¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.57 · official $178.57 (match) · 70 history records