Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4931…f431 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.7%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage281d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Oct 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 15 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $23 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $32 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $29 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $30 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $5 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $9 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $33 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.60 · official $29.60 (match) · 103 history records